Fluvial Flood Losses in the Contiguous United States Under Climate Change
نویسندگان
چکیده
Flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters causing significant economic losses. One dominant drivers flood losses heavy precipitation, with other contributing factors such as built environments and socio-economic conditions superimposed to it. To better understand risk profile associated this hazard, we develop probabilistic models quantify future likelihood fluvial flood-related property damage exceeding a critical threshold (i.e., high damage) at state level across conterminous United States. The model conditioned on indicators representing precipitation amount frequency derived from observed downscaled precipitation. estimated conditional probability distribution annual total damage, which joint indicators. Our results indicate an increase in exceedance 70th percentile for each state) future. Higher projected be clustered states western south-western States, parts U.S. Northwest northern Rockies Plains. Depending state, mean these regions could range 38% 80% 46% 95% end century (2090s) under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This equivalent 20%–40% compared historical period 1996–2005. Results show that uncertainty ranges 14% 35% states. spatio-temporal variability three decades 2050s, 2070s, 2090s) exhibits nonstationarity, driven by prediction climate change scenarios.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Earth’s Future
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2328-4277']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003328